-8.05% METAPIB AND -9.68% EXPECTED GDP OF SPAIN IN 2020
According to calculations made by Jorge Vendrell and disseminated today by Globedia and World Economy Devolepment Center, GDP in 2020 could fall by around -9.65% with annual inflation of -0.20%; depending on the final variation in GDP in final inflation and the december paralysis level that we have estimated the same as in October.
The Interim Target of Gdp by the end of the year would be -8.05% so if both forecasts were met, the 2020 Relative Efficiency would yield a negative daldo of -1.6%.
In the columns of the following table are the estimates of the Expected Gdp by 2020, the Quarterly Variation, the annual Variation by Quarterlys ; as well as, the CPI Expected, the F Expected fall of GDP and the Gdp Target calculated by WED-CENTER.
As we can see the quarterly Inter-GDP of the 4th quarter is expected to be positive, at least 1.29%, with it desirable that it reach 2.89%, somewhat higher than that expected by Minister Mr. Escrivá on 8 December 2020 which stood at 2.4%. It should be remembered that, although quarterly Inter GDP is positive, the annual GDP variation of the 4th quarter of 2020 relative to that of the same period in 2019 will continue to be negative reaching -7.84%, in the event that the quarterly recovery is1.29%, and -6.24%if the recovery between 3rd and 4th quarter rises to 2.89%.
COMPARISON BETWEEN THE FALL IN GDP EXPECTED BY WED-CENTER AND OTHER AGENCIES
If we compare now the expected decline by major economic institutions, domestically and internationally, we see the average fall in GDP at around 11.75%. On the contrary, my forecast is a drop of -9.68% considering the fall in economic activity of the fourth quarter. This fall, allthough it is the smoothest of all the falls expected by major economic institutions, is not good since the Gdp Target is exceeded by -1.60%.
THE TARGET GDP
"The Objective Gdp Target, or "Metapib" is a new concept that I have introduced in Circular Macroeconomics and that allows to evaluate whether the variation in Gdp is below, on line, or above what is expected, so it is a method that is far from the traditional system that predicts GDP through variations in production, investment, consumption and income available mainly."
In conclusion, only if GDP is above -8.05% will we say it is better than expected, if on the contrary it were above Metapib, as all economic bodies anticipate, then we will say that it is worse than expected, and if it places 60 decimas above or below the Gdp Target we will conclude that it is in line with what is expected. In any case, we are facing an unprecedented historical economic collapse over the past 80 years.
CONSEQUENCES OF ECONOMIC PARALYSIS DECREED BY THE GOVERNMENT
"In an economic pandemic, the Economic Collapse will not occur because of the contradiction of the capitalist system, but because of the manifest incompetence of its rulers who, by not taking the right measures to fight the health pandemic, decide to paralyze the economy by causing economic collapse, which will happen when the annual fall in national GDP snores or exceeds -8%, as a result of having confusedor,dramatically, Paralysis andconsomics with Economic Hibernation; the very serious mistake made by governments and sponsored by the IMF, the European Union, and the ECB, of which the Trump administration has always disdained avoids,so far, a large-scale GLOBAL COLLAPSE by stopping the last of the E Cascading effects that trigger in the Phases of Economic Collapse: the Snowball Effect"
It should be remembered that "TheGolden Rule of Economic Paralysis" states that:
"Any level of economic paralysis in a country will cause an identical decline in its economic activity and GDP, the consequences of which will be: falling consumption and investment, and rising unemployment, inequality and poverty."
ONLY POSSIBLE SOLUTION:
"The only possibility is to compensate those affected by the Economic Pandemic, derived by the economic paralysis decreed by the government, indemnifying them for the damage suffered, so that they can refloat their businesses and their lives."
"Denying this reparation and diverting recovery funds to environmental and economic digitisation initiatives, backed by the European Union, the ECB and the IMF, obviating the responsibility no longer of the government, but of the state itself and the international community, would only lead to a serious social conflict with criminal tinges, which could lead to bankruptcy of the state and end up eroding the pillars of democracy itself."
"Economic Cryogenization is the hibernation of the economy, creating a financial bridge between the start and end of cryogenization, consisting of the implementation of cyber-debt, and cyber money in the same amount, in order to fully cover the expenditures of the public sector, and those of the private sector that is inactive, for the duration of the hibernation of the economy , safeguarding citizens, businesses and state services from bankruptcy.
To ensure its success, it must have the endorsement of the ONU, after plenary meeting of all the countries that make up it, and the two international organizations that were created for its control and supervision: the OMCE World Organization for Economic Cryogenization and the RIB,International Banking Regulator, which would also have the power to issue and transfer it, thoroughly lost, through cyber-currency, to the Central Banks of each country,who will make it reach their respective ministries of finance that would be responsible for transferring the corresponding amounts directly to the cyber accounts of their legal receptors, being able to use them from their mobile devices or TPAs cards, to make payments and transfers, under the Vendrell Plan of Economic Cryogenization"
Learn more at www.wed-center.com - Jorge Vendrell - World Economy Development Center