GERMANY's GDP 2020 could fall between -4.57% and -5,07 level that matches its METAPIB
Actualizado: ene 18
15/01/2021 01:57 Jorge vendrell - World Economy Devolepment Center
Study by Jorge Vendrell that will be part of his next book entitled: "FROM THE WORLD ECONOMIC PANDEMIC TO THE GLOBAL ECONOMIC CRIOGENIZATION." Quote required by copyright."
"My forecasts suggest that the fall in German GDP will range from -5,07% to -4.57% the latter level that coincides with its GoalGDP.”
"Once all the information on the level of economic paralysis decreed by the German government was obtained and processed in 2020, my forecasts suggest that the fall in German GDP will range from -4,67% to -4,57% the latter level that coincides with its GoalGDP, being able to reach the vicinity of -5%. Quarterly gdp in the fourth quarter will fall between -2, 44% and -2.87% and relative efficiency could be between -3,678 million and +100 million euros.
It should be noted that the difference between the MSS GDP calculation system and the GoalGDP is only 0.01%, indicating that the expected GDP will be very close to this figure and will not exceed the vicinity of -5%; what should be confirmed should be
EXPECTED GDP GERMANY-2020
The following table shows the summary of Spain's expected GDP in 2020. The first line shows calculations according to the GoalGDP Fusion System method, MFS, matching the 2nd row with the Metapib Media System, MMS calculation method.
MFS.- According to the MFS (line 1) the annual GDP of 2020 will fall back to -4, 67% to 3,293, 257 million euros, given that Germany's annual GoalGDP in 2020 is -4.10%, Germany's GDP in 2020 will achieve negative Relative Efficiency (ERP) of -3, 678 million euros. It can also be seen how quarterly inter-quarter GDP would in this case reach a fall of -2,87%
MMS.- If we now calculate annual GDP through the Metapib Media System method, the annual GDP of 2020 will fall back to -4.56% to 3,296.84M, coinciding almost with -4.57% of its Metapib, which is why Relative Efficiency (ERP) is positive with a balance in favour of +100 million euros.
DIFFERENCE BETWEEN MFS & MMS
The difference between the two is simple:
MFS.- The GoalGDP Fusion System replaces the GDP of the 4th quarter, until now unknown, with -6,61% of its Metapib (red oval) which results in a fall in annual GDP of –4.67%.
MMS.- The GoalGDP Media System calculates the fall in GDP in the first quarter taking into account the average variation of the 2nd and the 3rd, regardless of that of the 1st, which as we see is not representative since it rose by 2.69% which contrasts with the fall of -3, 41% of the GoalGDP of the 1st quarter.
"A fall in German GDP hovering around -5,07%, should be taken as a good result as it approaches its GOALGDP of -4.57%. corresponding to their level of economic paralysis"
QUARTERLY RELATIVE EFFICIENCY
By comparing quarterly FALLS in GDP with their respective Metapib declines now, we can calculate Germany's Relative GDP Efficiency. (Column 8, difference between 3 and 7)
In the 1st quarter there is a large variation in favour of GDP relative to GoalGDP which reaches +2,11%, possibly due to the inertia of the economy.
In the 2nd quarter as the difference between GDP and GoalGDP narrows, the first falling relative to the second -0, 46%, indicating that until the 2nd quarter the economic pandemic barely hurt the German economy that falls proportionally to the level of paralysis decreed by the German government.
In the 3rd quarter, although economic paralysis softens, which can be seen through the quarterly inter-quarter rise of +7.55% of this period, Quarterly Relative Efficiency falls -2.06% which highlights that Gdp grows proportionately less than it should in relation to the revival caused by the decline in economic paralysis.
Relative efficiency in the fourth quarter is positive, i.e. Gdp falls less than GoalGDP, which is very positive as it tells us that the fall in GDP is proportional to the level of economic paralysis decreed by the German government.
"The difference between the fall in THE GDP of the MFS of -4, 67% and that of the MMS of -4, 56%, coincide practically with that of its GoalGDP of -4.57% which allows me to make a very tight forecast of the fall in GDP and Relative Efficiency."
"Although most, not to say all analysts and politicians, consider excessive a fall that hovered around -5% of German GDP in 2020, nothing further from reality, since a fall of this caliber is in fact the expected target fall as predicted by their GoalGDP which numbered it at -4.57%. That corresponds to the level of economic paralysis decreed by the German government"
" GoalGDP is undoubtedly the best measuring stick to a country's economic situation, even more effective than the inter-quarterly variation that can distort reality at the onset of economic paralysis because of past economic inertia."
As the difference between GDP MSS -4, 57 and GOALGDP -4, 56, is only 0.01%, the expected GDP should be very close to these levels or to the vicinity of -5,07%
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Jorge Vendrell - World Economy Devolepment Center