GOALGDP G-20, 2º Qtr. - 2021
18/07/2021 11:12 The GOALGDP: The best way to predict and assess G-20 GDP
Study by Jorge Vendrell. "Copyright citation."
In order to determine the fall in GDP during the Economic Pandemic, in 2020 I developed a tool that has allowed me to predict, based on the study of its level of economic paralysis, the evolution of the Gross Domestic Product of any country. Since then, through the metapib calculation I have anticipated the quarterly and annual GDP of the G-20, Euro Zone, EU, OECD, Schengen area, and the prediction of the annual GDP in 2020 of 134 countries.
The advantage of the METAPIB is that in addition to being a prediction of the evolution of GDP, it establishes the goal that each country should achieve based on its level of economic paralysis, which in itself encloses a process of evaluation of governments and their economic policies.
The METAPIB is therefore much more than a prediction, it is "the GDP Target to be achieved by governments". Until the arrival of the METAPIB, a system capable of analyzing whether the GDP obtained by a country was equal to better or worse than expected had not been established, since there was no common yardstick for all of them, capable of analyzing and comparing the GDP achieved by the different countries.
"The increase in GDP is a necessary but not sufficient step towards recovery, which during the economic pandemic has seen the loss of a part of the market and its productive fabric, unbalancing the main determinant of GDP and employment: inflation; which has increased significantly, not because of the increase in public spending by the government but because of the fall in competition as a result of the closure of thousands of companies caused by the economic paralysis decreed by their governments."
In the following table I present the "METAPIB G-20 Ranking of the 2nd quarter of 2021" which leads the United Kingdom with an expected increase in its GDP of 4.56%, followed by Germany with 3.02; Italy 2.35%; Spain 2.29%; Mexico 2, 21%; South Africa 2.02%; South Korea 1.90%; United States 1. 76%; Canada 1.74%; Indonesia 1.70%; France 1.58%; Saudi Arabia 1. 39 per cent; Brazil 0.58%; Australia 0.40%; Japan 0.26%; Argentina -0,14%: and closes the classification India with an expected fall in its GDP of -2.85%. China and Russia have excluded themselves from this table because they have no information about their economic paralysis
The recovery should focus on job creation, since through the employment-GDP loop they will tend to balance their determinants and reduce the public deficit, boosting growth.
ANALYSIS OF THE METAPIB G-20 TABLE
In view of the results it seems clear that Spain will in no case lead the European recovery that seems to come from the hand of the United Kingdom and Germany once again.
In its "Quarterly Report of the Spanish Economy" the Bank of Spain has forecast for the 2nd quarter of 2021 an average gdp increase of 2.20%, which would coincide with the METAPIB calculated by Jorge Vendrell and released here today.
It is quite possible that the GDP of the 2nd quarter exceeds in many cases the METAPIB, thus obtaining better results than expected due, in large part, to the online sales strategy developed by many companies that has been revealed as the most effective way to combat the economic paralysis decreed by governments , who are real responsible for the collapse of the economy.
"We must bear in mind that the increase in GDP will have to be rolled back to inflation, so real GDP could end up being low. Thus, the focus of the recovery should be on job creation, not on GDP growth, since it is through employment that an economic BIG-BANG will be triggered capable of driving a loop of "Empleo-PIB and PIB-Empleo" capable of rebalancing the determinants of both magnitudes, reducing inflation and the public deficit, and boosting long-term growth."
More information at:
World Economy Development Center.