HISTORICAL FALL OF G20 GDP
Actualizado: ene 28
"With the publication of this report, prior to the publication of official GDP by G-20 area governments, I anticipate the estimated fall in GDP on the basis of the level of economic paralysis decreed by each government, and the "evaluation of their behavior" which is unprecedented so far, since neither the IMF, the World Bank nor the European Central Bank itself has been able to establish either the relationship between the level of economic paralysis and the fall of GDP, nor how to assess whether this fall is online, greater or less than expected. "
Estudio realizado por Jorge Vendrell que formará parte de su próximo libro titulado: “DE LA PANDEMIA ECONOMICA MUNDIAL A LA CRIOGENIZACION ECONOMICA GLOBAL. “Cita obligada por derechos de autor.
GDPGOAL measures the fall in Gdp relative to economic paralysis decreed by governments so that the greater the economic paralysis, the greater the fall in Gdp. As Argentina can see, he tops this ranking, follows him in this order: India, United Kingdom, Spain, Mexico, Turkey, Brazil, France, Italy, Saudi Arabia, South Africa, Germany, Indonesia USA, Canada, Australia, South Korea, Japan, Russia and China, although of these nations we do not have the primary data to calculate their GDPGOAL all seems to indicate that predictably they will be the ones that will fall the least from the G-20.
FUNCTIONING OF THE G-20 METAPIB FRAME
METAPIB (col.4): This is the target Gdp Target that should reach each country's GDP. It is obtained calculated the Economic Paralysis decreed by the government, so that, the greater the economic paralysis, the greater the fall of the GDPGOAL and therefore of Gdp.
METAPIB MAXIMO (col2): This is the result of adding 10% to the GDPGOAL.
IN LINE WITH THE EXPECTED: It is the interval between GDPGOAL and GDPGOAL Maximum, so that:
If the nominal year-on-year official gdp is within this interval we will say that it is in line with what is expected.
If nominal year-on-year official gdp falls less than the minimum of this interval we will say it is better than expected
If nominal year-on-year official gdp falls above the maximum of this interval, we will say it is worse than expected.
RANKING METAPIB (Col 3): is the ranking that orders euro area countries from worst to best relative to their GDPGOAL.
EXPECTED GDP MMS AND MMF (col.1y5) It is the expected Gdp taking into account the annual Quarterly Inter-Quarter developments in official gdp; that is, the variation in GDP between each quarter of 2019 for each of the quarters of 2020, so that:
If they appear in red, it will mean that the official Gdp falls more than the maximum level of the annual GDPGOAL
If it appears in green, it will mean that the official Gdp falls less than the minimum level of the annual GDPGOAL
COUNTRIES*: These are the countries that belong to the Euro Zone so the calculations of MFS and MMS GDP correspond to nominal year-on-year GDP in euros, for all other countries the fall in MFS and MMS GDP refers to the fall in GDP in their local currencies.
ANALYSIS OF DATA
The box is subdivided into two parts.
Lfirst refers tothe metaPIB drop ranking and the GDPGOAL MAXIMUS that mark the interval in which the final GDP should be positioned; which will help us to make your evaluation as indicated below.
The second part of the table shows the MFS and MMS GDP calculations that mark the expected gdp range, so it is to be expected that the final GDP will be within it
"If the final GDP is between GDPGOAL Maximus and GDPGOAL we will conclude that the final Gdp is in line with what is expected. If it falls beyond the level of the " GDPGOAL Maximus" we will consider the result of the final gdp to be worse than expected. If, on the other hand, less falls from this interval, the fall in the final gdp should be considered as better than expected."
Argentina and India.- They lead the drop of GDPGOAL column 2; but as you can see their Metapib (col. 5) is within the range of expected GDP (col. 4) MFS and MMS (col. 6.) If the fall in Gdp is confirmed within these intervals we will conclude that the fall in their GDP is proportional to the level of economic paralysis decreed by their governments,so they should be considered in line with what isexpected.
United Kingdom, Spain and Mexico- Rank 3rd, 4th and 5th in the GDPGOAL RANKING with a GDPGOAL of -8.63% and -8.10% respectively; but unlike Argentina and India they have a steeper drop in expected gdp (col. 4 and 5) than their respective GDPGOAL. If a fall in final gdp above the maximum GDPGOAL is confirmed and between GDP MFS and MSS,we will conclude that official GDP would be worse than expected.
Brazil, Saudi Arabia, Germany, Indonesia, Australia and South Korea stand out for having expected green Gdp (col. 4 and 6) lower than their respective GDPGOAL. Therefore, we will consider that the fall in final gdp is in line with what is expected, provided that its final Gdp falls within the expected GDP range (col 4 and 6)
USA, ranks 14th in the METAPIB Drop Rankings. It should be noted that the US GDPGOAL is between -4.05% and -4.35% indicating that the final GDP will be very close to these levels and not beyond -4.51% its GDPGOAL MAXIMUS.
France, Italy, SouthAfrica, Canada and Japan, have in common an expected fall in GDP, (col 4 and 6 inred) more pronounced than that of their respective GDPGOAL, so if confirmed this fall should be seen as worse than expected.
Russia and China are the only G20 countries of which we do not have primary information which is why I have not been able to calculate their corresponding GDPGOAL or their expected GDP MFS
"As I have been indicating for months a fall in economic activity caused by an increase in the level of economic paralysis will bring down GDP proportionately, hence those governments that have implemented a higher level of paralysis will also see their Gdp more contracted."
"Metapib is the best tool for measuring a country's "Economic Efficiency" in relation to the level of economic paralysis decreed by the government; so countries whose fall in GDP is between their Metapib and 10% higher than this, we will say that they are in line with what is expected, those that fall more than this interval will rate them as worse than expected, and those that fall less than expected."
"The advantage of GDPGOAL is that it marks the level of fall in Gdp that each state should reach according to the level of economic parláis decreed by its government; therefore, a slight fall in GDP cannot be expected with a level of economic paralysis decreed by the high government, which is why President Sanchez has made the decision not to re-confine severely."
"I would like to add that the fall in GDP published by the government will not reflect the "Total Fall in GDP" since to this fall we will have to add the one that will result from the public deficit which could end up practically doubling the fall in official GDP that the Spanish government discloses."
"Argentina, India, the United Kingdom, Spain and Mexico will beamong the countries that will fall the most from the G20. The reason is very simple, the level of economic paralysis decreed by their governments is higher than that of the other countries that makeup the G20,being very worrying the fall of the United Kingdom, Spain, and Mexico that also record an expected fall higher than their respective Objective Gdp targets, which makes them top candidates to preside over the positions of honor of the greatest economic collapse in the history of the G20."
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Jorge Vendrell - World Economy Devolepment Center