• Jorge Vendrell wed-center

THE EU'S EXPECTED GDP FOR THE 2ND QUARTER SHOULD EXCEED 3%


The GOALGDP or Target GDP is the expected Gdp that each country should achieve taking into account its level of economic paralysis.

Its main feature is that in addition to being a system capable of forecasting GDP, it allows us to perform a double examination:


1. Evaluate if the economic performance of the government has been better, equal or worse than that of the rest of the governments.- That we will obtain after ordering from highest to lowest in a ranking the expected GDP of each of them that collects its GOALGDP, indicating which governments have paralyzed less and which will indicate which government has paralyzed less and which have paralyzed its economy more.


2. Calculate whether the GDP obtained by each country is better equal to or worse than the expected GDP.- which we will obtain by subtracting the first from the second; so that:


  • If the official GDP is higher than the GOALGDP we will say that it is better than expected.

  • If the Official GDP oscillates between the GOALGDP and -10% of it, we will conclude that it is in line with expectations.

  • If the Official GDP is less than -10% of the GOALGDP we will say that it is worse than expected.

In the following table we classify the economic performance of governments in relation to the level of economic paralysis decreed bythem, which is reflected through their GDP GOALGDP; since, those whose GOALGDP is higher, should reach a higher level of GDP, and therefore a higher place in the GOALGDP Ranking, since there is a direct relationship between GOALGDP and GDP, and inverse between these and the level of economic paralysis.


The table consisting of 5 columns evaluates the expected GDP of the countries that make up the Euro Zone, the European Union, and Europe, the latter classification that includes all European countries regardless of whether or not they are part of a European organization.


  • Column 1 shows the European countries for which the study has been carried out.

  • In column 2 the calculation of the GOALGDP, or expected GDP that is the one that each country should reach, taking into account the level of economic paralysis decreed by its government.

  • Column 3 shows the Rankin g GOALGDP of the euro zone

  • Column 4 shows the Metapib Ranking of the European Union

  • In column 5 we present the European Ranking GOALGDP

  • Column 6 shows the population of each country.



THE METAPIB AND THE GOVERNMENT'S ECONOMIC ASSESSMENT


The three countries that top the Economic Assessment Ranking are in this order, with: 5.48% Slovakia, 4.89% Low Countries 4.56% United Kingdom.


Above 4% of the expected GDP it is followed by: 4.49% Greece, 4.42% Portugal, 4.33% Georgia, 4.21% Denmark, 4.14% Slovenia,4.05%Lithuania and 4% Switzerland.

Between 3 and 4% we find 5 more countries, with: 3.85% Croatia, 3.53% Bulgaria, 3.49% Hungary, 3.26% Latvia, and 3.23% Czech Republic.


Between two tenths above 2% and 3% are 10 more countries: Germany, Austria, Belgium,Romania, Italy, Spain, Finland, Sweden, Norway and Poland.

It is striking to see how most of the governments of countries with more than 20,000,000 population,with theexception of the United Kingdom which is in 3rd position in the ranking, are the ones that have managed the Worst Economic Pandemic, the reason is because they are also the ones that havedecreed a higher level of economic paralysis. Thus until the 16th position does not appear Germany, the next country in the ranking of the GOALGDP, of the countries with more than 20,000,000 inhabitants, after him only heiguen in the 19th place Romania, Italy in the 20th position, Spain in the 21st,Poland in the 25th and closes the classification in the 28th France with an expected Gdp of 1.58%.


The expected average gdp growth of the 33 European countries is 3%, while that of the 7 countries with a population of more than 20,000,0000 people is 2%, that is, it is exceeded by 50%. If we now compare the difference between the averages of the first 15 countries with that of these 7, we see that for the latter it is 2% and for the first 15 it is just twice as much as 4%.


The evidence shows that the 7 main European countries except, the United Kingdom and Germany, have made a much worse managementof the Economic Pandemic than the average of the remaining 24 countries.


"The fact that final GDP is better or worse than expected will not improve or worsen the economic assessment made by its leaders in this ranking, but will determine whether the country is in a better or worse economic situation than expected. This difference between the expected GDP or " GOALGDP " and the Official GDP is called Relative Efficiency, so if this is positive it is expected that the recovery of the economy will be greater than expected and if it is negative worse. "