The GREAT DISCALABRO: GDPGOAL Euro Zone-2020 Ranking
The result of the leadership of the international authorities in the Euro Zone: FALL of GDP of -5, 06%. thousands of ruined businesses and entrepreneurs, and hundreds of thousands of lives lost
Study by Jorge Vendrell that will be part of his next book entitled: "FROM THE WORLD ECONOMIC PANDEMIC TO THE GLOBAL ECONOMIC CRIOGENIZATION." Quote required by copyright.
Economic collapse would have to be described as falling in Gdp in the euro area, which will fall by at least -5.06%. Worst of all, it could have been avoided if THE ECONOMY had been CRYOGENIZED as it proposed in March to the international authorities, who turned a deaf ear to my warnings, so this is the result of their leadership: Euro area GDP fall of -5.06%. thousands of ruined entrepreneurs and entrepreneurs, and hundreds of thousands of lives lost.
"With the publication of this report, prior to the publication of official GDP by euro area governments, I advance the estimated fall in GDP on the basis of the level of economic paralysis decreed by each government, which is unprecedented so far, as neither the IMF, the World Bank nor the European Central Bank itself has been able to establish this relationship so far."
GDPGOAL measures the fall in Gdp relative to economic paralysis decreed by governments so that the greater the economic paralysis, the greater the fall in Gdp. As you can see Ireland, top this ranking, is followed by Spain, Luxembourg, France, Belgium, Italy, Austria, Portugal, Lithuania, Slovenia, Slovakia, Greece, Malta, Germany, Netherlands, Finland, Latvia closing this Estonian ranking whose GDPGOAL only falls -2, 26%.
OPERATION OF THE EURO-2020 ZONE METAPIB TABLE
GDPGOAL (col.4): This is the target GDPGOAL that should reach each country's GDP. It is obtained calculated the Economic Paralysis decreed by the government, so that, the greater the economic paralysis, the greater the fall of the Metapib and therefore of Gdp.
GDPGOAL MAXIMUM (col2): 10% higher than GDPGOAL.
IN LINE WITH THE EXPECTED: It is the interval between the Metapib and the maximum GDPGOAL , so that:
a) If the nominal year-on-year official gdp is within this interval we will say that it is in line with what is expected.
b) If nominal year-on-year official gdp falls less than the minimum of this interval we will say it is better than expected
c) If nominal year-on-year official gdp falls above the maximum of this interval, we will say that it is worse than expected.
RANKING GDPGOAL (Col 3): is the ranquin that orders euro area countries from worst to best relative to their GDPGOAL .
EXPECTED GDP MMS AND MMF (col.1y5) It is the expected Gdp taking into account the annual Quarterly Inter-Quarter developments in official gdp; that is, the variation in GDP between each quarter of 2019 for each of the quarters of 2020, so that:
a) If they appear in red, it will mean that the nominal year-on-year official gdp falls more than the maximum level of the annual GDPGOAL
b) If it appears in green, it will mean that the nominal year-on-year official gdp falls less than the minimum level of the annual GDPGOAL
COUNTRIES: countries that were part of the euro area by the end of 2019. Countries with* such as Ireland and Luxembourg as tax havens are in fact very weak in relation to their Metapib and the fall in expected GDP MFS and MMS, so the fall in their GDP is expected to be much lower than that of their GDPGOAL.
ANALYSIS OF DATA
Ireland and Luxembourg.- Although Ireland and Luxembourg are in the first and third positions, these positions do not match the expected GDP MFS and MFH, since the increase in economic paralysis of these nations is not directly related to many of the companies based there that carry out their main activities in other countries.
Spain.- If we do not take Ireland into account for the reasons set out above, Spain is also at the top position of the GDPGOAL fall ranking, also leading the top position in the nominal year-on-year expected gdp drop by placing it between -9, 92 and -11.45% which would be a terrible news story if confirmed, as this would mean that official gdp would fall by a proportion higher than the level of economic paralysis decreed by the Sanchez government in 2020. By the time the government releases the official fall in Gdp in 2020, I will make a definitive report on the fall in Spanish gdp.
France and Belgium would occupy 2nd and 3rd positions if we ruled out a fall in Ireland and Luxembourg according to their Metapib, for the reasons set out above. Unlike Spain, the expected falls of France and Belgium fall in the context of the fall of their respective GDPGOAL, soif confirmed they would be in line with what wasexpected.
Spain's gdp will be among the 3 countries with the biggest falls in the euro area, and Estonia's among the 3 least
Italy, although it has a lower GDPGOAL than France and Brussels, has a higher drop in expected GDP than these countries, so spain augurs a higher drop in Italian gdp than french and Belgians.
Austria and Portugal have a fall in their Metapib similar to the expected fall in GDP MFS and MMS, which would be seen as good news since it would indicate that the GDP of their economies should not fall beyond the level of economic paralysis decreed by their governments.
Lithuanian, Slovenia, Slovakia, Germany, the Netherlands and Finland, in addition to having a lower GDPGOAL than the previous countries, stand out because their expected Gdp is lower than their respective GDPGOAL, which would mean, if confirmed, that their economies should have lower declines than they should be based on their level of economic paralysis.
Latvia and Estonia, although according to their GDPGOAL they should be the least affected countries in the decline in their gdp, raise some doubts given that the expected gdp of both countries far exceeds that of their respective GDPGOAL.
Greece, appears as one of the countries most punished by the pandemic, not so much because of the level of paralysis of its economy that reflects a drop in its GDPGOAL of -5, 24%; but by the expected fall in its GDP MFS and MMS that augur a collapse of nominal year-on-year GDP between -9, 48 and -10.55%
"As I have been indicating for months a fall in economic activity caused by an increase in the level of economic paralysis will bring down nominal year-on-year GDP proportionately, hence those governments that have implemented a higher level of paralysis will also see their Gdp more severe."
" GDPGOAL is the best tool for measuring a country's "Economic Efficiency" in relation to the level of economic paralysis decreed by the government; so that; those whose fall in GDP is between their Metapib and 10% higher than this, we will say that they are in line with what is expected, those who fall more than this interval will rate them as worse than expected, and those who fall less than expected."
"The advantage of GDPGOAL is that it marks the level of fall in Gdp that each state should reach according to the level of economic parláis decreed by its government; therefore, a slight fall in GDP cannot be expected with a level of economic paralysis decreed by the high government, which is why President Sanchez has made the decision not to re-confine severely."
"I would like to add that the fall in GDP published by the government will not reflect the "Total Fall in GDP" since to this fall we will have to add the one that will result from the public deficit which could end up practically doubling the fall in official GDP that the Spanish government discloses."
"To be sure, Spain's gdp will be among the 3 countries with the biggest falls in the euro area, and Estonia among the 3 countries that will least see their GDP recede. The reason is very simple, the level of economic paralysis decreed by the Sanchez government reflected by its GDPGOAL is -8, 10% and Estonia's is -2, 26; from what I think, it's all said!"
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Jorge Vendrell - World Economy Devolepment Center